Since 2014, Kpreps has named a breakout team for nearly each class, a squad that is set to experience a jump in victories and likely influence the playoff picture.
Of the 21 Kpreps picks in the last three years, 16 improved their record, four were worse and one stayed the same. Last season, the teams identified collectively went 56-28 (66.7 percent). Those same squads had a total 35-41 (46.1 percent) the year prior.
In 2016, Kpreps correctly picked big increases for Osborne (13-0, nine-win improvement, Eight-Man, Division I champions) and Smoky Valley (8-3 in 4A-II, six-win improvement).
Here is the 2017 list:
Eight-Man, Division II: Stockton Tigers
From the start of 2013 through Week 5 of last season, Stockton had just three wins. After a 0-5 start in 2016, Stockton captured four of five and won District 5 for the program’s first playoff appearance since 2002. Stockton (4-6) led powerhouse Wallace County for most of the first half in the postseason before falling 48-18.
This year, the Tigers are a dark-horse contender in Division II and have several similarities to last year’s Dighton squad that was a fringe top-10 team at the start of fall and then finished state runner-up.
Stockton averaged 34.2 points a game and returns junior quarterback Brady Beougher, a multi-sport standout. He completed 130 of 285 passes for 1,974 yards with a 27/11 TD/INT ratio.
Beougher is the team’s top returning rusher with 84 carries for 377 yards. Junior middle linebacker Jalen Basart and senior defensive end Trey Kuhlmann had 154 and 72 tackles, respectively.
The Tigers permitted more than 41 points a contest but were significantly better the last two weeks in a Week 9 district-clinching victory against Lakeside (66-20) and the Sharon Springs loss.
The schedule sets up well with a very manageable district, though Stockton has a solid Week 3-5 stretch of versus Pike Valley, at Logan-Palco and versus Sylvan-Lucas, teams that won at least six games in 2016.
Before last year, Stockton had captured more than three games just once from ’04-15, a 4-5 year in 2012. The Tigers should enjoy their first .500 season in more than 13 falls and could win their first playoff game since ’98.
Eight-Man, Division I: Hoxie Indians
Hoxie has been one of eight man’s most consistent programs with seven straight winning seasons. The Indians (6-3) return every player and add senior transfer Chris Cox, an Oakley standout the last two years. In addition to his football success, Cox finished third and second the last two winters in Class 3-2-1A wrestling at 220 pounds.
In the last two years, Hoxie has permitted just 17.1 points per game, sixth in all of eight-man football, trailing just St. Francis, Spearville, Central Plains, Hanover and Argonia-Attica, all teams who have at least played in a state title game since ’14.
Hoxie is the only eight-man team in the last two years to collectively finish in the top-20 in scoring defense and not make the playoffs either of the seasons. The Indians are expected to have around 28 players out and feature senior running backs Troyal Burris and Latham Schwarz who combined for 27 rushing scores.
Junior defensive end Jarrod Dible delivered 11 sacks. The Indians should improve on an even turnover margin. Hoxie is at Wallace County in Week 3, and then has its two big District 8 tests early with home against Atwood in Week 4 and at St. Francis in Week 5. Hoxie lost to Wallace County, 30-22, despite winning the yardage battle, 276-261. Hoxie committed seven turnovers in the Atwood loss.
Coach Lance Baar is 48-28 as the Indians’ coach with the lone playoff wins coming in a sub-state run in ’13. With the experience, the influx of Cox and the steady defense, Hoxie is a contender for its first-ever football crown.
Class 2-1A: Ell-Saline Cardinals
After a surprise run to the 2-1A championship game in ’14, Ell-Saline slipped back to 3-6 the past two years. This season, coach Terry King believes his team should be much improved. Ell-Saline’s strength comes in the line with all the starters back. Senior guard Avery Bradley was a first team all-league selection on both sides, and senior Brandon Headlowe collected second team honors.
Senior center Mason Farrell is a solid player and was injured the last three contests of ’16. Bradley and Farrell enter their third year as starters.
Senior Jared Walsh and junior Clayton White return at tackle, and senior Spencer Came is back at tight end. Junior Reis Jennings, who came in for Farrell at center, also returns.
Junior Nick Davenport is in his second year at under center for King, known for developing quarterbacks. Speedy senior Zaide Korb started on both sides of the ball as a sophomore.
A receiver/defensive back, Korb missed 2016 because of injury. Ell-Saline averaged 22 points and permitted 27.2 in ’16 and should improve on both numbers.
Ell-Saline went 0-3 in close games, a statistic where teams generally show improvement. The Cardinals dropped those contests by a combined 21 points with defeats versus Sedgwick in Week 1 (21-18), at Hutchinson Trinity in Week 5 (8-0) and versus Sacred Heart in Week 8 (31-21).
Class 3A: Cherryvale Chargers
Cherryvale is known for big one-season swings and this fall could yield another turnaround. Since ’09, the Chargers are 10-1, 5-4, 2-7, 3-6, 8-4, 5-4, 8-2 and 5-4.
Last year, the Chargers lost 31-8 to Fredonia, 61-26 versus Caney Valley, 40-0 to Galena and 17-14 against Riverton. The Fredonia loss was an 8-8 score at half.
Cherryvale had been 8-1 in its last nine games versus Fredonia, who graduated all-state back Isaac McPherson. Riverton had just one victory entering the Cherryvale contest, but pulled the upset to earn the District 6 runner-up berth behind Galena. This season, Cherryvale gets Riverton at home.
Junior quarterback Cade Addis complete 58 of 138 passes for 1,015 yards with a 15/9 TD/INT ratio. As a team, Cherryvale had a 15/15 TD/INT ratio and committed 19 turnovers overall, a high number.
The Chargers were just plus-2 in turnover margin. The 15 interceptions were the most in the last decade by Cherryvale. Lane Raida enjoyed a nice improvement from ’14 to ’15 at quarterback, and Addis could have a similar showing. Senior Ryan Robertson returns after he caught 15 passes for 238 yards and four TDs.
Senior Bryson Bennett returns after 63 tackles with a knack for turnovers: six fumble recoveries, four forced fumbles.
Class 4A-II: Concordia Panthers
From a yardage standpoint, Concordia’s offense wasn’t much different from 2015 to 2016. In a 6-4 team two years ago, the Panthers averaged 258 yards and 13.2 first downs a contest with 23 turnovers.
Last season, Concordia averaged 241 yards with 12.9 first downs a contest and 16 turnovers, according to North Central Kansas League statistician Kevin Johnson.
However, the Panthers averaged 17.5 points a game compared to 12.4 last year. The Panthers finished 1-8. Concordia has produced a negative turnover margin each of the past two falls.
The defense was the third-best in 4A-II in 2015 at 15.2 points allowed. Last season, the Panthers rose to 28 points per contest permitted, which was No. 19 in the 32-team classification – and still better than some playoff teams, including district foe Colby.
A huge difference for the Panthers came on special teams, especially punting. In ’15, Logan Higbee had 189 punt return yards. Last season, the Panthers finished with 10 punt return yards.
Concordia averaged 34 yards a punt in ’15 and ranked last in the league at 31 yards a punt last season. The Panthers went 0-4 in games within 14 points, including a 28-27 loss to Colby.
This year, Concordia returns senior Rope Dorman, who rushed for 1,084 yards on six yards a carry. Seniors Garrett Lawrence (conference-best 15 TFLs) and Brent Beaumont (Panther-best 80 tackles) should lead a defensive – and team-wide - improvement.
Class 4A-I: DeSoto Wildcats
The Wildcats have enjoyed four seasons of improvement from 0-9 to 3-6 to 6-4 to 7-3. DeSoto, with plenty of returning all-conference talent, is in a strong position to post its best record and top offensive numbers in more than a decade.
From ’06-16, DeSoto’s highest victory total came in a 7-5 season in ’10 and last fall. The 2010 quarterfinals run is the best since 1989.
The Wildcats have averaged 26.5 and 24.2 points per game the last two seasons, the best since PPI started tracking data in ’06. The 14.9 points allowed in ’16 was the lowest since ’11 for the program.
This season, DeSoto returns a bevy of first team all-conference players, including senior dual threat quarterback Bryce Mohl, offensive lineman Marshall Kellner, defensive lineman Zach Titus, linebacker Jack Barger, and kicker Ethan Rodriguez.
Titus collected Kpreps all-state honors and is one of the state’s best linemen regardless of class. Mohl was on pace for a big year before he suffered injury after the sixth game. He still recorded 732 rushing and 507 passing yards.
Additionally, linebacker Trevor Gress, running back/receiver Trevor Watts were second team picks, and running back/receiver Darren Winans earned honorable mention. All eight returners are seniors.
Class 5A: Shawnee Heights Thunderbirds
Coach Jason Swift has long had the T-Birds in the mix in Class 5A. From ’05-15, Shawnee Heights missed the playoffs just once, including quarterfinals from ’09-11 and a sub-state berth in ’14.
Last season, the T-Birds dropped to 3-6 and lost in the first round of the 5A playoffs. Shawnee Heights was outscored by just six points the entire year (219-213) and lost multiple close games.
The T-Birds went through a variety of injuries, but actually had a big offensive and especially defensive improvement from a 3-7, district-winning squad in ’15. That team scored 161 points and permitted 408. Height’s winning percentage last fall was the lowest for the program in more than 11 years.
Starting in Week 4, Heights lost 24-21 to Topeka Seaman, 32-28 at Topeka High and 23-20 to Topeka Hayden. The Seaman and Hayden losses came on last-second field goals.
Against Seaman, Heights held a 451-326 yardage edge but was minus-5 in turnover margin. Senior running back Trey Jenkins is back after 538 rushing yards on 6.6 yards per carry for a squad that averaged 346 yards a game.
Junior Tyce Brown averaged 18 yards a catch on 23 receptions. The top-three tacklers return, paced by senior middle linebacker Dane Terry (102 stops, 98 solo). Senior lineman Cade Holmes is a Division I caliber player. Senior Mitchell Lady is back at quarterback after he played some as a sophomore.
Class 6A: Dodge City Red Demons
Considering the circumstances, Dodge City quietly pulled off an impressive 2016. The Red Demons returned just one defensive player for ’16 but he suffered an injury, and had just two offensive starters back.
Dodge City went from a wide-open, pass-heavy spread offense to a squad that controlled the tempo and ran the ball. The result was another 5-4 season. The Red Demons lost twice in WAC play to Great Bend, 34-27, and rival Garden City, 36-13. Against Great Bend, Dodge City led 24-14 early in the third quarter.
Dodge City averaged 31.3 points and permitted 23.7, its best scoring defense since 2010. Senior quarterback Dawson Williams passed for 329 yards and rushed for 1,679 yards with 25 TDs.
This year, six defensive starters return, including junior Marcos Fisher (team-high 12 TFLs). The Red Demons have plenty of experience in the trenches, and Williams is one of the state’s best running signal callers.
Dodge City hasn’t played more than nine games in a year since 2012 but has the experience and personnel to earn at least a postseason victory this fall.
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